Coronavirus

[VJOFan]

This thread is an amazing history of the slow awakening to how much of a threat this virus really is. It starts with asking if anyone is thinking about cancelling or postponing shows and ends (so far) with improvised PPE.

On March 12 I played what turned out to be pretty much the last public performance in my city (as a ringer in the local El Sistema orchestra). The director of the school announced at the show that the school was shutting down, and just 24 hours later our provincial government announce a “2 week” public school closure- we’re still closed.

It’s hard to remember what it felt like to be so unconcerned about Covid 19 that I would hang out with 300 people in a crowded church and SHAKE HANDS with the kids in the section with me!

Now the question is, does anyone think we will be playing by this time next year?

[Bach5G]

I think at some point prior to a vaccine being available, the gov’t will determine an acceptable rate of infection and mortality, and allow us to return to our jobs, properly masked to minimize to some degree, maybe less than N95, the spread of the virus.

[DougHulme]

What is it they call it 'herd Immunity'?

Its actually nature taking its course but I would have thought what with natural immunity, a vaccine and some medicines that are useful, we surely will be back sooner rather than later, I know all these things take time to develop and we (especially you in the States) are in for a very rough ride before it starts to get better. The thing is who decides when it is better and when and what regulations we can start to relax, I'm sure we wont get an announcemnet that from midnight tonight you can all go about your old life styles. I imagine that jobbing musicians could be one of the last back since it all involves groups of people in confined spaces.

[BGuttman]

The key question is at what point do we consider all of our quaratine to be sufficient. When do people who were exposed to COVID 19 cease to spread the virus? It's a question we don't have the answer to.

The problem with waiting on a vaccine or cure is that it takes quite a while to prove safety and effectiveness. This won't be available overnight, as much as our Fearless Leader wishes it so.

[norbie2018]

Bone-Spur In Chief handing out medical advice - you can't make this stuff up!

UW is experimenting with blood plasma from recovered Covid-19 patients. The plasma contains antibodies which, when injected into a recently diagnosed Covid-19 patient, helps them recover more quickly.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/madison.co ... 1.amp.html

[RConrad]

I think at some point prior to a vaccine being available, the gov’t will determine an acceptable rate of infection and mortality, and allow us to return to our jobs, properly masked to minimize to some degree, maybe less than N95, the spread of the virus.

We'll probably get to that point by July or August. Then we'll have a second wave of mass infections later this year. At least by next spring a vaccine should be available to the majority of the population. Between now and then our best hope is that we can find some kind of treatment that lowers the mortality rate.

[JohnL]

UW is experimenting with blood plasma from recovered Covid-19 patients. The plasma contains antibodies which, when injected into a recently diagnosed Covid-19 patient, helps them recover more quickly.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/madison.co ... 1.amp.html

That's something that is being tried in several places, so far on a small scale. I'm hoping we hear that it's effective.

[Bach5G]

That seems like a relatively obvious approach and I expect the Chinese are very much on top of it. The lacks of reported results does not seem encouraging.

[BGuttman]

Given how much Fearless Leader promotes chloroquinone, I have a similar compound -- hydroquinone -- from when I used to formulate photographic processing chemicals (it's a developing agent). Wonder if that would work? Wonder how much to dose? Too much is poisonous. Hmm...

[Bach5G]

Can the US medical system hold up? 400,000 cases (as of today), with and without health insurance. The cost is enormous, and enough, one would think, to bankrupt many health insurance companies, if not the entire health insurance industry. Big bailout on the way?

[Mikebmiller]

Bill Nye has a good podcast on the subject if you want to get some good factual information.

[davebb]

Is anyone making masks that will fit over the end of the bell yet ?

[cmcslide]

Is anyone making masks that will fit over the end of the bell yet ?

Use a SoftTone mute?

[Bach5G]

My Teele is over after about a week and a half. Not very efficient in my opinion. 3 hours on a variety of material would have a better outcome, I think.

I’m going through the books on my shelf. A pleasant rediscovery was my Tommy Pederson etudes for bass trombone. Otherwise, Arban’s. Set the metronome at a comfortable tempo and play each exercise perfectly. For bass, play them down the octave. Read them in tenor and alto. And, always, the cello suites. All good.

[DougHulme]

Forgive me if you are reading a similar narrative for the umpteenth time! Also it might not seem at the beginning of this post that the coronavirus thread is the right place for this but bare with me to the end to form that opinion.

More has been said of this elsewhere but as everyone on this forum knows Ed and Barbara Thayer were responsible for the invention of the Axial Flow valve, that led in turn to so many other variations and improvements of the trombone valve. It’s a fascinating story that wasnt entirely fair on Ed and has ended up being entirely unfair to Barbara. Ed died in the summer of 2009 but he never made much money out of his revolutionary design in fact I suspect if you total all the expenses of development, court costs and everything over the years he probably lost out.

There were certainly big debts that were left to Barbara Ed’s wife after his passing. Barbara had been an equal partner in the running of the company; she spent many hours doing various tasks in the production and assembly of the valves and the horns they retrofitted. She was an astute partner but not able to continue the production after Ed's passing. I Believe the tooling and all the specifications were sold to Bob Milashuis of Minnesota, possibly better known for making mouthpieces but if anyone needs spare parts or valves of identical specifications to Ed’s own production then he is the go to man.

Now here is the thing... Barbara is very much still with us but is still struggling to get out of the aftermath of debt following being made a widow. She refused to go down the bankruptcy route and has all but paid everything back. She is now 94 and although very spritely and still very with it, she has nowhere permanent to live and has spent the last few years Going from bed and breakfasts to Airbnb’s. Her social security payments are not quite enough for her to live on let alone raise a deposit to rent or buy her own flat. The trombone world that recognise Ed’s (and her’s) contribution to the development of our beloved instrument have been coming together for a little while now to help remedy this situation (just in case anyone had missed it!). Ken Novotney has started a ‘GoFundMe ‘page to raise funds for Barbara to see her remaining years out in some comfort but also with security (did we cover this in a thread before?).

It has been running for 4 months now and I have just been looking at the record of giving and I wonder with this current epidemic if we are running out of steam? The response has been magnificent so far with raising over $7,000 of the $11,000 target but now with other more pressing and more personal matters at the forefront of our minds could it be that we might subconsciously put Barbara down our list of priorities?

With the present troubles and Barbara being 94, now would be the very time to renew our support, if not a first time perhaps a second smaller donation just now? I know many on this forum have already given and are well aware of the circumstances of the appeal but in case anyone is not I suggest you go to Doug Yeos blog ‘The last Trombone’ and look up his appeal, it is far more eloquent than mine. Alternatively go straight to Kens Gofundme page and see what ken says and the various updates he’s posted.

There are some nice photos on there of interest to historians I am sure. I met Ed and Barbara a couple of times at ITF’s and again a short while before he passed when I was trying to persuade him to put a valve on a horn for me but alas despite his great desire to help I think I was too late but I can say what a wonderful, warm and sincere couple they were. I truly commend Barbara to you now and hope we can carry this appeal on and that it hasn’t run out of energy in these extraordinary times.

Doug Yeos Thoughts Can Be Found here… https://thelasttrombone.com/2019/12/

And Kens GoFundMe page is here… https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-barbara ... hare-sheet

Forgive me if we’ve done this before here – just take it as a reminder. Stay safe… Doug

[paulyg]

Is she living solely on social security? Bankruptcy might have been her best option, social security will not be garnished except to pay alimony or back taxes (and that maxes out at 15% of the monthly payout).

Who advised her against this? She is practically judgement-proof. She could declare bankruptcy and even if she got the absolute meanest judge in the world, would be no worse off than she is now. Her credit card debt would almost certainly be re-negotiated. It would be amazing if one of the many trombone-playing lawyers could step in and help her out- it would do a lot more good than a couple bucks. She should probably file Chapter 7 bankruptcy and get on with her life.

[timothy42b]

I have just finished the Breitnauer book and had previously read the Barry book on the 1918 “Spanish” flu epidemic, which changed the world in ways we don’t remember- including who won WWI and the creation of the national health systems common in developed countries, the partition of the Middle East, the creation of Iraq, etc.

The thing that most recently struck me is the long term sequelae. People who survived the flu often ended up with later neurological symptoms ranging from mild to severe (like the encephalitis referenced in Awakening. “

[brassmedic]

More has been said of this elsewhere but as everyone on this forum knows Ed and Barbara Thayer were responsible for the invention of the Axial Flow valve, that led in turn to so many other variations and improvements of the trombone valve. It’s a fascinating story that wasnt entirely fair on Ed and has ended up being entirely unfair to Barbara. Ed died in the summer of 2009 but he never made much money out of his revolutionary design in fact I suspect if you total all the expenses of development, court costs and everything over the years he probably lost out.

Doug Yeos Thoughts Can Be Found here… https://thelasttrombone.com/2019/12/

And Kens GoFundMe page is here… https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-barbara ... hare-sheet

Forgive me if we’ve done this before here – just take it as a reminder. Stay safe… Doug

Maybe this was done already and I missed it, but would you consider posting this in its own thread? I just saw this and I donated. I wouldn't have known about it at all though; I don't usually read this section of the forum. I just happened to notice how much activity this thread was getting, so I looked at it.

[DougHulme]

Maybe this was done already and I missed it, but would you consider posting this in its own thread? I just saw this and I donated. I wouldn't have known about it at all though; I don't usually read this section of the forum. I just happened to notice how much activity this thread was getting, so I looked at it.

I'll do it - which section is it best suited though is the question? I can see relevance to Music Business, Musicians, Tangents, History of Trombone, Instruments. Its both a human interest as well as instrument related story. My choice I think would be either Music Business or History of Trombone. Where would it get read the most? I guess I would work Eds Name into the Subject thatw ay more would read it? Kindest... Doug

[brassmedic]

Maybe this was done already and I missed it, but would you consider posting this in its own thread? I just saw this and I donated. I wouldn't have known about it at all though; I don't usually read this section of the forum. I just happened to notice how much activity this thread was getting, so I looked at it.

I'll do it - which section is it best suited though is the question? I can see relevance to Music Business, Musicians, Tangents, History of Trombone, Instruments. Its both a human interest as well as instrument related story. My choice I think would be either Music Business or History of Trombone. Where would it get read the most? I guess I would work Eds Name into the Subject thatw ay more would read it? Kindest... Doug

I think either Music Business or Musicians. The important thing is to have Ed's name in the thread title.

[DougHulme]

Brassmedic wrote... I think either Music Business or Musicians. The important thing is to have Ed's name in the thread title.

I did it, for better or worse! I chose 'Musicians' as the section, The Mods can move it or chop it if they want. I think it is an important thing we can do for one individual and she has given a lot to us, collectively, even if we dont like axials!

Stay safe... Doug

PS and on topic. I saw on the UK news last night that scientists at Oxford University have started the first clinical trials of a vacine. Same channel said tonight that it might be two years before it reaches joe public though.

[Bach5G]

I suspect the trials will be fast tracked if the results are promising.

Besides, as Trump says, what have you got to lose?

(Everything)

Meanwhile:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/c ... ticleShare

[Posaunus]

California always wants to be first in the nation:

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... c_id=12003

[Mikebmiller]

While I am not a scientist, I have been listening to a bunch of them on podcasts lately, and it sounds like this is going to be a multi-year ordeal until a vaccine is created and enough doses are manufactured. Lots of organizations are re-scheduling spring events for the fall with the assumption that everything will be hunky dory by then, including a musical I was supposed to play in May. One guy I heard on the NY Times Daily podcast said that the fastest that humans have ever created a vaccine is 4 years (for mumps). Even with every lab on the planet working on it, he says that 18 months would be a good result for creating the vaccine and then it has to be manufactured and distributed. Until then, we have to rely on testing, which is not yet up to speed, and contact tracing, which is barely starting, to control things. So dreams of full NFL stadiums and concert halls this fall may be just that.

[norbie2018]

You have politicians in places like Georgia deciding to open up gyms, tattoo artists, salons, etc. by the end of the month. I know that certain politicians (all of them likely) could care a rats bottom who they harm, but this is grossly irresponsible considering what was just posted. This thing kills people.

BTW, who's going to be first to walk into one of those places?

[BGuttman]

You have politicians in places like Georgia deciding to open up gyms, tattoo artists, salons, etc. by the end of the month. I know that certain politicians (all of them likely) could care a rats bottom who they harm, but this is grossly irresponsible considering what was just posted. This thing kills people.

BTW, who's going to be first to walk into one of those places?

The guy who owns it.

I just can't believe the same folks who were excoriating Obamacare for "death panels" for Grandma are fine with a disease that preferentially kills Grandma.

[norbie2018]

You have politicians in places like Georgia deciding to open up gyms, tattoo artists, salons, etc. by the end of the month. I know that certain politicians (all of them likely) could care a rats bottom who they harm, but this is grossly irresponsible considering what was just posted. This thing kills people.

BTW, who's going to be first to walk into one of those places?

The guy who owns it.

I just can't believe the same folks who were excoriating Obamacare for "death panels" for Grandma are fine with a disease that preferentially kills Grandma.

The older I get the less time I have for B.S., and politicians are oozing with it.

With May right around the corner, one of the community bands I play with performs at a Memorial Day ceremony yearly. I do not envision being at that performance: even if it does take place I cannot justify possible exposure and bringing it home to my family.

[Mikebmiller]

My band has already cancelled our normal June outdoor concerts. July 4th is still on the schedule, but who knows.

[RoscoTrombone]

What I'm starting to find frightening is the amount of people who are jumping on the "this is all a hoax" bandwagon.

Watching the protests in the States....a Governor being likened to the Hitler & the Nazis for imposing a lockdown.

5G mobile masts are getting vandalised etc and I've just been reading on the comments section of a newspaper with a couple of people saying that this has all been planned, that it's a cull of the worldwide population, that the West are going to impose China like control on their citizens, that all the world's governments are lying to is about the number of deaths & that Bill Gates controls all the labs and will take control of things that way.

Seeing things like this makes my blood boil!

[Bach5G]

Nearly a million cases and over 54,000 deaths in the US as of April 26.

I wonder what it takes to wake people up.

[afugate]

What I'm starting to find frightening is the amount of people who are jumping on the "this is all a hoax" bandwagon.

Watching the protests in the States....a Governor being likened to the Hitler & the Nazis for imposing a lockdown.

5G mobile masts are getting vandalised etc and I've just been reading on the comments section of a newspaper with a couple of people saying that this has all been planned, that it's a cull of the worldwide population, that the West are going to impose China like control on their citizens, that all the world's governments are lying to is about the number of deaths & that Bill Gates controls all the labs and will take control of things that way.

Seeing things like this makes my blood boil!

"The opinion of 10,000 men is of no value if none of them know anything about the subject."
- Marcus Aurelius, Roman Senator and Emperor

--Andy in OKC.

[norbie2018]

Media hype of uninformed individuals (I'm being polite).

Per polling the majority of Americans agree that the social distancing measures have been necessary.

[BflatBass]

I'm seeing news about reports that say the risk of death is 0.03% from the coronavirus which is lower than the seasonal flu (0.06%). The argument is that the "lockdown" is overkill and needs to be relaxed. Personally I'm afraid that we will be returning to "normal" too soon. But also I think that if the powers that be relax the lockdown they should target it to a certain extent. This would be difficult of course. Maybe protect those most at risk to a very high degree but everyone else is allowed to return to work so to speak. This is really complicated but maybe it could be a guideline for relaxing our isolation. Idk, just a thought. When South Korea dealt with this pandemic they didn't need to shut everything down. They were smart about their testing and were able to isolate high risk people and areas early. They were so effective about it they got things under control very quickly.
We're way past that point here in the US of course. Idk, maybe because we didn't get a jump on this situation early enough we now have to deal with it in a "universal" way in that everyone is affected even if they shouldn't or don't need to be.

I'm hoping that one of the after effects of this pandemic will be that wearing a mask will be much more common place out in public.

[Posaunus]

I'm seeing news about reports that say the risk of death is 0.03% from the coronavirus which is lower than the seasonal flu (0.06%).

That "news" (assertions based on phony statistics), from a couple of kooky physicians in Bakersfield, CA is – and has clearly been shown to be – BOGUS!

Please don't believe everything you read/see on Facebook / Twitter / Fox / etc.
There really is such a thing as fake news!"

I have no problem wearing a mask in public for a while longer.
We're in pretty good shape here in Southern California (except Los Angeles), and hope to keep in that way.

[norbie2018]

You can't compare us to South Korea because they had adequate testing and we clearly don't. And the federal government has given guidelines for states to reopen that depend on testing. It's all out there put out by researchers and scientists the politicians have to choose to follow it as well as normal citizens.

[Bach5G]

“I'm seeing news about reports that say the risk of death is 0.03% from the coronavirus which is lower than the seasonal flu (0.06%).”

1 million cases of CV19 in the US, with about 50,000 dead. So 5%. That seems like a fairly consistent number. In Canada, about 50,000 cases, 3000 deaths. Around 5%.

UK has 161,000 cases and 22000 deaths. A bit hight death rate. 14%?

Definitely not .O3%.

It’ll drop as the old and the vulnerable die off.

[DougHulme]

I belive that high death rate in the UK is only because we havent counted the number of infections we have no idea how many have actually contracted it and got better.

[Burgerbob]

It's killed more people in the US than anything else in the last 3 months.

[JohnL]

I belive that high death rate in the UK is only because we havent counted the number of infections we have no idea how many have actually contracted it and got better.

Much less the people who have contracted it and had minimal or no symptoms. Same here. The vast majority of testing so far has been on people that there is some reason to think they may have been infected (they have symptoms or have been in contact with someone who is/was infected). Until we have the results of tests on a significant sample of people selected at random from the general population, they're guessing at the true infection rate. And without knowing the true infection rate, the true fatality rate cannot be determined.

Yes, it's flawed data. But it's the only data we have for now, so that's what's being used to make decisions.

The indicator I've been watching is the 7-day moving average of deaths per day. That, at least, is pretty solid (as well as very sad on a human scale) data.

[BGuttman]

Interesting thing about this disease is that it's Nature's "Death Panel for Grandma". It tends to be worst for those of us past 70 and relatively mild for those of us who are still in our productive years (and I'm in the former category).

Right now we have about 5% of the people presenting with symptoms dying. That's a lot higher than Flu (deaths relative to people presenting with symptoms).

[Mikebmiller]

It's killed more people in the US than anything else in the last 3 months.

Except for possibly some of the jokes on Jimmy's Fallon's attempt to do the Tonight Show from home with no audience to laugh at them.

[Bach5G]

Some positive news today for once. Apparently, remsevidir has shown some promise in treating COVID-19. Moreover, there were some positive results on a vaccine coming out of Oxford and Australia.

[StevenC]

My father has tested positive. While he is very healthy for an 85 year old, this is certainly cause for concern.

[StevenC]

and I stopped shaving during my quarantine. It negatively affected my playing, so I shaved my lip. I'm trying to shave the rest of my face, but don't have adequate tools.

[Burgerbob]

and I stopped shaving during my quarantine. It negatively affected my playing, so I shaved my lip. I'm trying to shave the rest of my face, but don't have adequate tools.

I stopped shaving for a month, but it was really getting to be a drag. I've been shaving every 4 days or so since then.

[Posaunus]

I have also stopped shaving for the past month. (Why bother when you're stuck at home, right?) But I'm still adjusting to it. Playing trombone is harder (especially bass trombone) – not sure why.

When I was younger (decades ago), I had a full beard, and played professionally (orchestra, brass quintets, ...) for several years (until I had to get serious about a non-music career to support a growing family), and never had any problems. But after being clean-shaven for all that time, it now feels a bit strange.

Fortunately, it appears that I'll have plenty of time to adapt before again playing with others!

[Bach5G]

The lockdown beard is coming along just fine, thank you.

I am wondering how long it will be before the groups I play with will be back even after things begin to reopen. At least one of the groups will be looking for a new rehearsal space.

[timothy42b]

I belive that high death rate in the UK is only because we havent counted the number of infections we have no idea how many have actually contracted it and got better.

Much less the people who have contracted it and had minimal or no symptoms. Same here. The vast majority of testing so far has been on people that there is some reason to think they may have been infected (they have symptoms or have been in contact with someone who is/was infected). Until we have the results of tests on a significant sample of people selected at random from the general population, they're guessing at the true infection rate. And without knowing the true infection rate, the true fatality rate cannot be determined.

But, what are we comparing it to? Do we know the true fatality rate of the flu, or do we only have data for those with symptoms? I would guess it is more likely to be the latter, in which the comparison is not that flawed even though technically based on the wrong data.

[JohnL]

But, what are we comparing it to? Do we know the true fatality rate of the flu, or do we only have data for those with symptoms? I would guess it is more likely to be the latter, in which the comparison is not that flawed even though technically based on the wrong data.

Nope, we don't know the "true" fatality rate seasonal influenza. Check out the section on "limitations" in this CDC page:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

The question then becomes whether the methods used to collect and analyze the data for Covid-19 and seasonal influenza are the same. Given that a lot of the analysis of influenza data seems to rely on "results of past studies" and no such studies exist for Covid-19, one has to wonder about comparisons.

But that's an academic discussion, and is in no way intended to minimize the severity of the situation.

[timothy42b]

Right.
It seems to me the true rate can be a bit optimistic.
If the true rate, including asymptomatic cases, is X, and I come down with symptoms, then my actual risk of complications is much much worse than that X. It may be several times X.

This is not academic for me. My wife left work yesterday with fever and chills. We are hoping that it is some other illness of course, hoping for the best.